2026 / Start-sit hindsight / Through Week 8
Fire the coach? Bring receipts.
The Monday-morning coaching audit
“I would’ve won if I started the right guys.” Fine. We checked.
Hindsight through Week 8: choose each roster’s best scoring legal lineup from its starters and bench, then replay the real schedule with both opponents optimized. Same roster, same week, same positions; no waiver pickups, trades, or IR players added. This is a hindsight ceiling, not a claim that every choice was predictable before kickoff.
| Team | Actual | Everyone optimizes | Only you optimize | Points missed | Lineup efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lady Luck's Leprechauns → | 5–3 | 5–3 | 6–2 | 128.10 | 87.3% |
| KVWN San Diego → | 6–2 | 5–3 | 7–1 | 109.60 | 89.0% |
| Santas Naughty Elfs → | 5–3 | 5–3 | 5–3 | 71.10 | 92.9% |
| Mr. Roboto → | 5–3 | 5–3 | 6–2 | 137.00 | 85.2% |
| Dearborn Dirkas → | 4–4 | 4–4 | 5–3 | 106.15 | 89.4% |
| Hurricane Ditka → | 4–4 | 4–4 | 4–4 | 74.00 | 92.2% |
| The Love Shack → | 4–4 | 4–4 | 5–3 | 128.40 | 86.4% |
| Team M.J. → | 3–5 | 4–4 | 4–4 | 97.40 | 88.9% |
| Puppet Master → | 5–3 | 4–4 | 6–2 | 89.90 | 89.7% |
| Globo Gym → | 3–5 | 3–5 | 5–3 | 107.75 | 88.4% |
| C-Kupps → | 3–5 | 3–5 | 4–4 | 69.50 | 91.7% |
| Wreck It Ralphs → | 1–7 | 2–6 | 3–5 | 77.10 | 90.5% |
M.J. left 42.20 points on the bench in Week 8—and still loses to Roboto’s best lineup. The lineup meeting deserves questions; the opponent also deserves some credit. Ditka and Globo already used their highest-scoring lineups.
Week 8: who sat on the points?
| Team | Actual points | Best lineup | Missed points | Start instead | Sit instead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team M.J. | 77.55 | 119.75 | +42.20 | Jaylen Waddle (WR, 13.40) Emmett Johnson (RB, 22.80) Jonah Coleman (RB, 18.40) | Kenneth Walker III (RB, 10.40) Jordan Mason (RB, 2.00) Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, 0.00) |
| The Love Shack | 71.20 | 95.35 | +24.15 | Dak Prescott (QB, 21.75) Jadarian Price (RB, 4.70) | Lamar Jackson (QB, 0.00) Jeremiyah Love (RB, 2.30) |
| Wreck It Ralphs | 62.30 | 81.20 | +18.90 | Makai Lemon (WR, 8.70) Jalen Nailor (WR, 11.80) | Zay Flowers (WR, 0.00) Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE, 1.60) |
| Mr. Roboto | 132.85 | 142.95 | +10.10 | Jordan Addison (WR, 10.10) | Tre Tucker (WR, 0.00) |
| Dearborn Dirkas | 111.35 | 121.35 | +10.00 | Stefon Diggs (WR, 11.30) | Drake London (WR, 1.30) |
| C-Kupps | 94.90 | 103.55 | +8.65 | Kirk Cousins (QB, 30.65) | Kyler Murray (QB, 22.00) |
| Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 142.50 | 149.20 | +6.70 | Jakobi Meyers (WR, 3.40) Kenny Gainwell (RB, 14.00) | Bijan Robinson (RB, 7.60) Parker Washington (WR, 3.10) |
| KVWN San Diego | 110.80 | 115.40 | +4.60 | Germie Bernard (WR, 5.50) | DK Metcalf (WR, 0.90) |
| Puppet Master | 88.55 | 92.95 | +4.40 | Rachaad White (RB, 13.00) | Jalen Coker (WR, 8.60) |
| Santas Naughty Elfs | 103.45 | 105.75 | +2.30 | Treylon Burks (WR, 9.60) | Courtland Sutton (WR, 7.30) |
| Hurricane Ditka | 139.10 | 139.10 | +0.00 | Already optimal | — |
| Globo Gym | 106.95 | 106.95 | +0.00 | Already optimal | — |
Lady Luck's Leprechauns
Actual: 5–3. Everyone optimizes: 5–3. Points missed: 128.10. Changed results: 5: L→W; 7: W→L.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 136.85 | 138.75 | 1.90 | 107.00 | 122.60 | W | W |
| W2 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 95.70 | 96.20 | 0.50 | 91.85 | 95.15 | W | W |
| W3 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 103.65 | 148.85 | 45.20 | 159.30 | 165.80 | L | L |
| W4 ↗ | C-Kupps | 116.25 | 127.75 | 11.50 | 100.95 | 111.85 | W | W |
| W5 ↗ | Puppet Master | 116.55 | 152.35 | 35.80 | 119.45 | 125.15 | L | W |
| W6 ↗ | The Love Shack | 75.20 | 99.30 | 24.10 | 107.10 | 112.00 | L | L |
| W7 ↗ | Team M.J. | 93.80 | 96.20 | 2.40 | 84.55 | 101.35 | W | L |
| W8 ↗ | Globo Gym | 142.50 | 149.20 | 6.70 | 106.95 | 106.95 | W | W |
KVWN San Diego
Actual: 6–2. Everyone optimizes: 5–3. Points missed: 109.60. Changed results: 4: W→L.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 100.85 | 117.45 | 16.60 | 102.10 | 129.60 | L | L |
| W2 ↗ | Team M.J. | 118.40 | 143.10 | 24.70 | 97.20 | 105.50 | W | W |
| W3 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 111.65 | 124.55 | 12.90 | 95.95 | 111.30 | W | W |
| W4 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 123.50 | 139.30 | 15.80 | 121.15 | 155.15 | W | L |
| W5 ↗ | C-Kupps | 91.50 | 106.10 | 14.60 | 107.85 | 124.75 | L | L |
| W6 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 127.90 | 131.40 | 3.50 | 74.50 | 82.00 | W | W |
| W7 ↗ | Globo Gym | 104.10 | 121.00 | 16.90 | 100.05 | 104.25 | W | W |
| W8 ↗ | The Love Shack | 110.80 | 115.40 | 4.60 | 71.20 | 95.35 | W | W |
Santas Naughty Elfs
Actual: 5–3. Everyone optimizes: 5–3. Points missed: 71.10. Changed results: None.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 92.35 | 112.55 | 20.20 | 91.70 | 104.95 | W | W |
| W2 ↗ | The Love Shack | 131.45 | 147.55 | 16.10 | 94.65 | 114.55 | W | W |
| W3 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 159.30 | 165.80 | 6.50 | 103.65 | 148.85 | W | W |
| W4 ↗ | Puppet Master | 99.65 | 102.75 | 3.10 | 66.90 | 79.70 | W | W |
| W5 ↗ | Team M.J. | 156.05 | 164.25 | 8.20 | 86.65 | 88.65 | W | W |
| W6 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 74.50 | 82.00 | 7.50 | 127.90 | 131.40 | L | L |
| W7 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 108.75 | 115.95 | 7.20 | 121.10 | 125.30 | L | L |
| W8 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 103.45 | 105.75 | 2.30 | 111.35 | 121.35 | L | L |
Mr. Roboto
Actual: 5–3. Everyone optimizes: 5–3. Points missed: 137.00. Changed results: None.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 102.10 | 129.60 | 27.50 | 100.85 | 117.45 | W | W |
| W2 ↗ | C-Kupps | 99.30 | 113.30 | 14.00 | 79.80 | 82.90 | W | W |
| W3 ↗ | Globo Gym | 91.80 | 110.90 | 19.10 | 87.55 | 95.55 | W | W |
| W4 ↗ | The Love Shack | 114.15 | 132.25 | 18.10 | 116.60 | 150.25 | L | L |
| W5 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 79.95 | 79.95 | 0.00 | 103.85 | 116.15 | L | L |
| W6 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 82.60 | 92.15 | 9.55 | 131.35 | 131.35 | L | L |
| W7 ↗ | Puppet Master | 87.55 | 126.20 | 38.65 | 68.70 | 88.70 | W | W |
| W8 ↗ | Team M.J. | 132.85 | 142.95 | 10.10 | 77.55 | 119.75 | W | W |
Dearborn Dirkas
Actual: 4–4. Everyone optimizes: 4–4. Points missed: 106.15. Changed results: 4: L→W; 7: W→L.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 107.00 | 122.60 | 15.60 | 136.85 | 138.75 | L | L |
| W2 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 120.80 | 124.50 | 3.70 | 105.60 | 117.45 | W | W |
| W3 ↗ | C-Kupps | 118.40 | 137.60 | 19.20 | 81.10 | 91.00 | W | W |
| W4 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 121.15 | 155.15 | 34.00 | 123.50 | 139.30 | L | W |
| W5 ↗ | Globo Gym | 140.30 | 143.00 | 2.70 | 160.90 | 175.30 | L | L |
| W6 ↗ | Team M.J. | 76.05 | 97.00 | 20.95 | 99.90 | 112.80 | L | L |
| W7 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 101.35 | 101.35 | 0.00 | 92.20 | 110.75 | W | L |
| W8 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 111.35 | 121.35 | 10.00 | 103.45 | 105.75 | W | W |
Hurricane Ditka
Actual: 4–4. Everyone optimizes: 4–4. Points missed: 74.00. Changed results: None.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | C-Kupps | 124.20 | 147.45 | 23.25 | 113.50 | 113.50 | W | W |
| W2 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 105.60 | 117.45 | 11.85 | 120.80 | 124.50 | L | L |
| W3 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 95.95 | 111.30 | 15.35 | 111.65 | 124.55 | L | L |
| W4 ↗ | Globo Gym | 76.45 | 93.20 | 16.75 | 94.00 | 125.55 | L | L |
| W5 ↗ | The Love Shack | 85.70 | 88.30 | 2.60 | 115.50 | 127.50 | L | L |
| W6 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 131.35 | 131.35 | 0.00 | 82.60 | 92.15 | W | W |
| W7 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 121.10 | 125.30 | 4.20 | 108.75 | 115.95 | W | W |
| W8 ↗ | Puppet Master | 139.10 | 139.10 | 0.00 | 88.55 | 92.95 | W | W |
The Love Shack
Actual: 4–4. Everyone optimizes: 4–4. Points missed: 128.40. Changed results: None.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Puppet Master | 106.70 | 130.60 | 23.90 | 134.50 | 158.50 | L | L |
| W2 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 94.65 | 114.55 | 19.90 | 131.45 | 147.55 | L | L |
| W3 ↗ | Team M.J. | 101.90 | 101.90 | 0.00 | 96.40 | 96.40 | W | W |
| W4 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 116.60 | 150.25 | 33.65 | 114.15 | 132.25 | W | W |
| W5 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 115.50 | 127.50 | 12.00 | 85.70 | 88.30 | W | W |
| W6 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 107.10 | 112.00 | 4.90 | 75.20 | 99.30 | W | W |
| W7 ↗ | C-Kupps | 100.90 | 110.80 | 9.90 | 110.40 | 118.35 | L | L |
| W8 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 71.20 | 95.35 | 24.15 | 110.80 | 115.40 | L | L |
Team M.J.
Actual: 3–5. Everyone optimizes: 4–4. Points missed: 97.40. Changed results: 7: L→W.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Globo Gym | 118.65 | 129.85 | 11.20 | 85.00 | 106.80 | W | W |
| W2 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 97.20 | 105.50 | 8.30 | 118.40 | 143.10 | L | L |
| W3 ↗ | The Love Shack | 96.40 | 96.40 | 0.00 | 101.90 | 101.90 | L | L |
| W4 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 117.55 | 121.55 | 4.00 | 111.10 | 115.80 | W | W |
| W5 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 86.65 | 88.65 | 2.00 | 156.05 | 164.25 | L | L |
| W6 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 99.90 | 112.80 | 12.90 | 76.05 | 97.00 | W | W |
| W7 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 84.55 | 101.35 | 16.80 | 93.80 | 96.20 | L | W |
| W8 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 77.55 | 119.75 | 42.20 | 132.85 | 142.95 | L | L |
Puppet Master
Actual: 5–3. Everyone optimizes: 4–4. Points missed: 89.90. Changed results: 5: W→L.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | The Love Shack | 134.50 | 158.50 | 24.00 | 106.70 | 130.60 | W | W |
| W2 ↗ | Globo Gym | 104.40 | 109.60 | 5.20 | 65.50 | 93.30 | W | W |
| W3 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 108.40 | 117.00 | 8.60 | 92.75 | 96.35 | W | W |
| W4 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 66.90 | 79.70 | 12.80 | 99.65 | 102.75 | L | L |
| W5 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 119.45 | 125.15 | 5.70 | 116.55 | 152.35 | W | L |
| W6 ↗ | C-Kupps | 87.80 | 97.00 | 9.20 | 76.25 | 88.35 | W | W |
| W7 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 68.70 | 88.70 | 20.00 | 87.55 | 126.20 | L | L |
| W8 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 88.55 | 92.95 | 4.40 | 139.10 | 139.10 | L | L |
Globo Gym
Actual: 3–5. Everyone optimizes: 3–5. Points missed: 107.75. Changed results: None.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Team M.J. | 85.00 | 106.80 | 21.80 | 118.65 | 129.85 | L | L |
| W2 ↗ | Puppet Master | 65.50 | 93.30 | 27.80 | 104.40 | 109.60 | L | L |
| W3 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 87.55 | 95.55 | 8.00 | 91.80 | 110.90 | L | L |
| W4 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 94.00 | 125.55 | 31.55 | 76.45 | 93.20 | W | W |
| W5 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 160.90 | 175.30 | 14.40 | 140.30 | 143.00 | W | W |
| W6 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 124.55 | 124.55 | 0.00 | 85.90 | 88.40 | W | W |
| W7 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 100.05 | 104.25 | 4.20 | 104.10 | 121.00 | L | L |
| W8 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 106.95 | 106.95 | 0.00 | 142.50 | 149.20 | L | L |
C-Kupps
Actual: 3–5. Everyone optimizes: 3–5. Points missed: 69.50. Changed results: None.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Hurricane Ditka | 113.50 | 113.50 | 0.00 | 124.20 | 147.45 | L | L |
| W2 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 79.80 | 82.90 | 3.10 | 99.30 | 113.30 | L | L |
| W3 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 81.10 | 91.00 | 9.90 | 118.40 | 137.60 | L | L |
| W4 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 100.95 | 111.85 | 10.90 | 116.25 | 127.75 | L | L |
| W5 ↗ | KVWN San Diego | 107.85 | 124.75 | 16.90 | 91.50 | 106.10 | W | W |
| W6 ↗ | Puppet Master | 76.25 | 88.35 | 12.10 | 87.80 | 97.00 | L | L |
| W7 ↗ | The Love Shack | 110.40 | 118.35 | 7.95 | 100.90 | 110.80 | W | W |
| W8 ↗ | Wreck It Ralphs | 94.90 | 103.55 | 8.65 | 62.30 | 81.20 | W | W |
Wreck It Ralphs
Actual: 1–7. Everyone optimizes: 2–6. Points missed: 77.10. Changed results: 7: L→W.
| Week / source | Opponent | Actual | Best lineup | Missed points | Opponent actual | Opponent best | Actual result | Replay result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 ↗ | Santas Naughty Elfs | 91.70 | 104.95 | 13.25 | 92.35 | 112.55 | L | L |
| W2 ↗ | Lady Luck's Leprechauns | 91.85 | 95.15 | 3.30 | 95.70 | 96.20 | L | L |
| W3 ↗ | Puppet Master | 92.75 | 96.35 | 3.60 | 108.40 | 117.00 | L | L |
| W4 ↗ | Team M.J. | 111.10 | 115.80 | 4.70 | 117.55 | 121.55 | L | L |
| W5 ↗ | Mr. Roboto | 103.85 | 116.15 | 12.30 | 79.95 | 79.95 | W | W |
| W6 ↗ | Globo Gym | 85.90 | 88.40 | 2.50 | 124.55 | 124.55 | L | L |
| W7 ↗ | Dearborn Dirkas | 92.20 | 110.75 | 18.55 | 101.35 | 101.35 | L | W |
| W8 ↗ | C-Kupps | 62.30 | 81.20 | 18.90 | 94.90 | 103.55 | L | L |